The "Leasing Is a Bad Deal" Myth (And What the Math Actually Says)
Ask any personal finance influencer about leasing, and you will hear the same thing: "You are throwing money away. You do not build equity. You will always have a payment." It sounds convincing. And for some people, it is even true.
But for a lot of people, it is not. The lease-vs-buy debate is not a one-size-fits-all answer. It depends on how long you keep cars, how much you drive, what you value, and how the numbers shake out on the specific vehicle you want.
Let us actually run the numbers instead of relying on slogans.
Scenario 1: The 3-Year Driver
Meet Sarah. She likes driving a new car every three years. She has good credit, drives 12,000 miles per year, and prefers a compact SUV in the $40,000 range.
If Sarah Leases
- Selling price (negotiated): $38,000
- Residual value (55%): $22,000
- Depreciation over 36 months: $16,000
- Money factor (buy rate): 0.00150 (3.6% APR equivalent)
- Monthly payment: approximately $500
- Total cost over 36 months: $18,000 (including rent charge)
If Sarah Finances and Sells After 3 Years
- Purchase price: $38,000 + tax upfront
- 60-month loan at 5.5%: $726/month
- Payments over 36 months: $26,136
- Remaining loan balance at month 36: approximately $14,300
- Car's market value at month 36: approximately $22,000
- Equity after selling: $7,700
- Net cost of ownership: $26,136 - $7,700 = $18,436
The bottom line for a 3-year driver: leasing and buying cost nearly the same. The lease gives Sarah a lower monthly payment and no hassle of selling the car at the end. The purchase gives her a small equity cushion but requires a higher monthly payment and the effort of selling.
Scenario 2: The 7-Year Driver
Meet Tom. He buys a car and drives it until the wheels fall off. Same $40,000 SUV, same credit profile.
If Tom Finances and Keeps for 7 Years
- Purchase price: $38,000 + tax
- 60-month loan at 5.5%: $726/month
- Total loan payments: $43,560
- 24 months of no payments after loan payoff
- Car's value at year 7: approximately $12,000
- Net cost: $43,560 - $12,000 = $31,560 over 84 months ($376/month average)
If Tom Leased Twice (Two 36-Month Leases + Overlap)
- Lease 1: $500/month x 36 = $18,000
- Lease 2: $520/month x 36 = $18,720 (prices tend to rise)
- Total: $36,720 over 72 months ($510/month average)
The bottom line for a 7-year driver: buying wins clearly. Tom pays about $376/month on average over seven years, including 24 months of payment-free driving. Leasing would cost him $134/month more on average. Over seven years, that is a $9,400+ difference.
This is the scenario the anti-lease crowd focuses on, and they are right. If you keep cars for a long time, buying is almost always cheaper.
When Leasing Actually Wins
When Manufacturer Incentives Are Strong
Manufacturers sometimes subsidize leases by boosting the residual value or reducing the money factor below market rates. When this happens, the effective cost of leasing can be significantly lower than financing the same vehicle. These subsidized leases are real deals, not gimmicks.
For example, a manufacturer might set the residual at 60% when the car actually depreciates to 50%. That 10% difference on a $40,000 car means $4,000 less in depreciation you pay over the lease, saving you roughly $111/month.
When the Car Depreciates Quickly
Some vehicles lose value faster than average. If you are buying a car that will be worth 35% of its original price in three years, you are absorbing massive depreciation. Leasing caps your exposure to this depreciation because the leasing company, not you, bears the risk if the residual turns out to be too high.
When You Want Predictability
A lease payment is fixed. There are no surprise repair bills (the car is under warranty for the entire lease term in most cases). There is no anxiety about trade-in value. The monthly cost of driving is predictable, which matters to a lot of people.
When You Are a Business Owner
Business owners who use a vehicle for business purposes can often deduct the full lease payment as a business expense. Depending on your tax bracket and entity structure, the tax savings can make leasing substantially cheaper on an after-tax basis. Combine this with Section 179 deductions on the right vehicle, and the numbers get even more favorable.
When Buying Wins
- You plan to keep the car 5+ years (the payment-free years are where buying shines)
- You drive 20,000+ miles per year (mileage restrictions make leasing expensive)
- You want to modify the car (leases require returning it in original condition)
- You have access to a great purchase rate but the lease rate is not subsidized
- You prefer the psychological satisfaction of owning your car outright
The Variables That Actually Matter
Instead of asking "is leasing a bad deal?" ask these questions:
- How long do I realistically keep cars? (Be honest, not aspirational.)
- How many miles do I drive per year?
- What does the residual value look like on the vehicle I want?
- Are there manufacturer incentives that make the lease especially competitive?
- Am I a business owner who can deduct the payments?
The answers to these five questions will tell you whether leasing or buying makes more sense for your specific situation. The answer is not universal.
What Vantage Does Differently
We do not push leasing or buying. We run the numbers on both and show you which one makes more financial sense for your situation. If leasing saves you money, we will structure the best possible lease with transparent pricing. If buying is the better move, we will help you get below-invoice pricing and competitive financing.
Our broker fee is disclosed upfront. We do not profit from steering you toward one option over the other. The goal is the right deal for you, not the most profitable deal for us.
Get your free quote in under 5 minutes and we will show you the lease vs. buy math on the vehicle you want. No spam. No pressure. Unsubscribe anytime.
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